FTSE Forecasts

Result

The average (median) forecast is 6250. On average people entered a higher number for the 2013 forecast than their prediction of what everybody else thinks. The median difference was 69.

There were only 34 entries - I should have thought of the competition sooner in December.

Forecast	Prediction of median	Name
4800	6350	Chris Menon
5000	6500	dendyver
5423	6123	Anon
5545	5805	charleyduck
5600	6100	JT
5750	6050	Stemis3
5963	6269	Tint angel
6050	6040	Mike
6070	5977	ArabianOnyx
6123	5986	northern
6199	6321	Anon
6207	5350	fatherb
6209	6305	martinb201
6220	6435	PlayDumb
6235	6182	Alan Thompson
6235	6150	Jesttech
6250	6100	littledavesab
6250	5890	Scaramanga
6300	6100	Ts846
6328	6412	StrollingMolby
6350	6400	CapitAl
6375	5925	Malcolm Lee
6376	6100	geddinquick
6377	6550	paul mckay
6387	5920	teves
6475	6535	Steve Markus
6580	6750	Samir D
6652.8	6433.2	Mari11ion
6780	6275	PeterBill
6789	6250	CantEatValue
6928	6261	LaxerNo6
6969	6550	Dinocras
7200	6500	floorlord
7250	6350	BrianGeee

Winner

The first stage winner is CantEatValue who predicted the median FTSE100 end 2013 forecast exactly - 6250.

A competition and an experiment

The annual FTSE100 forecasts by Goldman etc are just feelgood PR. The world's economies are unstable - they cannot even predict GDP growth with any accuracy. Market sentiment a year ahead is doubly unknowable.

However, just for fun, here's a wisdom of crowds competition with a twist. You can forecast the level of the FTSE100 index. You can also predict what the average (median) forecast will be. What everybody else thinks may average on the optimistic side following a market rise or be too gloomy when the headline are full of doom.

The forecasts and first winner will be published here on January 2 2013. The forecast nearest to the actual FTSE100 level at end 2013 will be announced on January 2 2014.

Prizes

Both winners will get a a signed copy of Guy Thomas' Free Capital: How 12 private investors made millions in the stock market

"A compelling read...definitely the best investment book that has crossed my desk for some time" - Alistair Blair, Investor's Chronicle

"At last, a true to life account of UK investing" - Stockopedia review

Rules

Since there is a prize, a tedious set of terms and conditions appears below. Mainly - only one entry per person who must be UK resident and 18 or over (or get a parent's permission). The deadline for entries is 31 Dec 2012.

Terms and conditions

These terms and conditions are the Competition Rules ("Rules")

1. Freesharedata.com reserves the right to cancel or amend the Competition or the Rules without notice in the event of a catastrophe, war, civil or military disturbance, act of God or any actual or anticipated breach of any applicable law or regulation or any other event outside Freesharedata.com’s reasonable control. Any changes will be posted on this page..

2. In the event of any dispute regarding the Rules, conduct, results and all other matters relating to the Competition, the decision of the judge shall be final and no correspondence or discussion shall be entered into.

Qualifying Entrants

3. To qualify to enter the Competition you must be resident in the United Kingdom..

4. Freesharedata.com's owner and his immediate family are not eligible to enter the Competition.

5. By entering the Competition, you hereby warrant that all information submitted by you is true, current and complete. Freesharedata.com reserves the right to verify the eligibility of all entrants.

6. Freesharedata.com assumes that by reading the website and entering the Competition (and you warrant that) you are aged 18 or over or, if you are under 18, that your parents have consented to your entry into the Competition and these Rules.

7. Freesharedata.com reserves the right to disqualify any entrant if it has reasonable grounds to believe the entrant has breached any of the Rules.

8. In the event that any entrant is disqualified from the Competition, Freesharedata.com in its sole discretion may decide whether a replacement should be selected. In this event, any further entrant will be selected on the same criteria as the original entrant and will be subject to these Rules.

Competition Entries

9. Only one entry per person per Competition is allowed

10. Competition entries must be made in the manner and by the closing date specified on the Competition Notice.

11. There is no purchase requirement to enter the Competition

Prizes

12. The winners will be announced here and notified by 10 Jan 2012 and 10 Jan 2014. Return of any prize notification as undeliverable or failure to reply as specified in the notification (and within the time stated) may result in disqualification and selection of an alternate winner. Competition entrants' pseudonyms will be published on Freesharedata.com

13. Prizes are non–transferable and there is no cash alternative.

14. Prizes are awarded at the discretion of Freesharedata.com and no prizes will be awarded as a result of improper actions by or on behalf of any entrant.

14A. If the nearest forecast of the actual FTSE100 at end 2013 has the same entrant as the winner of the predict-the-average forecast, the prize will go to the second nearest entrant.

Liability

15. Freesharedata.com cannot accept any responsibility for any damage, loss, injury or disappointment suffered by any entrant entering the Competition or as a result of accepting any prize.

Data Protection and Publicity

16. Any personal data relating to entrants will not be disclosed to a third party without the individual’s consent. Data relating to entrants will be retained by Freesharedata.com for a reasonable period after the Competition closes to assist Freesharedata.com to operate competitions in a consistent manner and to deal with any queries on the Competition.

Jurisdiction

17. The Competition and Rules will be governed by English law and any disputes will be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of England. Where the site and/or the Interactive Services are accessed from Scotland or Northern Ireland, this Agreement shall be governed by the laws of Scotland or Northern Ireland respectively and you hereby submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Scottish courts or the courts of Northern Ireland respectively.